New poll on impeachment: Interesting, but reported incorrectly
A new poll conducted by Zogby International for AfterDowningStreet.org claims that
New Poll: Majority of Americans Support Impeachment. While the fact that 53% of those surveyed agree with the statement “If President Bush did not tell the truth about his reasons for going to war with Iraq, Congress should consider holding him accountable through impeachment” is very interesting. It does suggest a deep level of disillusionment with the administration and a sense that they may be lying to us. At the same time, it is, unfortunately misreported by AfterDowningStreet.org as saying that a majority support impeachment.
First, there is that huge “if” clause: “If President Bush did not tell the truth about his reasons for going to war with Iraq.” I wish they had asked if people thought Bush lied about his reasons for going to war. Without the latter question, these results are hard to interpret correctly, as have been those in two prior polls on this topic. If only a relatively few people believe President Bush did not tell the truth, then what do these results mean? Certainly NOT that people support impeachment.
Secondly, the question never asks about support for impeachment, it asks only whether “Congress should consider holding him accountable through impeachment.” Considering and doing are far from the same thing. People may well think that Congress should consider it, but not actually do it.
Also in this article is a chart extrapolating the three polls that have asked this question into the far future. They claim “If impeachment support continues to grow by 3% each month, it will reach 60% in January, 65% in March, and 70% in April” which is correct, but they give no reason whatsoever to believe that it will continue to grow in this fashion. Extrapolation into the future is a notoriously risky business even when you have far more data than three polls, as any honest stock market analyst can tell you. To see this, just continue the line in the chart passed the arbitrary stopping point of January, 2007 to its natural end point of January, 2009. In that case “If impeachment support continues to grow by 3% each month,” a rough extrapolation suggests that roughly 150% of the American public will support impeachment!
Unclear here is why AfterDowningStreet.org didn’t commission Zogby to ask the question they seem interested in, which is, do people support impeachment. While I think that AfterDowningStreet.org has called admirable attention to administration lies, I find it sad that they are putting forward such a misleading message. Aping the worst characteristics of out opponents by spinning distorted information to make a point it doesn’t support, is hardly a good way to advance the antiwar movement. It leaves us open to justified attacks on our credibility. It also fails to teach people to think carefully and critically. After all, the goal is not just to defeat Bush, but to create a more informed critical populace less likely to fall for the next manipulative demagogue to come along.
Add comment November 4th, 2005