Why do polls find such wide variability in American attitudes towards US strategy in Iraq?
Mark Blumenthal, the Mystery Pollster, has an excellent analysis of recent polls on US public attitudes towards Iraq. He demonstrates that there is great consistency (around 60%) in respondents’ feeling that the war was a mistake. However, different polls produce wide variation in responses to questions about what the US should do in Iraq, depending on the precise wording of the question. I’ve pondered this incongruity, without developing much insight.
Blumenthal explains the discrepancy in terms of whether questions are asking about topics about which people have thought and have opinions opinions [e.g., whether the war was a mistake] as opposed to questions which people have not thought much about and are making up responses on the spur of the momentmoment [e.g., how long the US should keep troops there].
Thus, in examining the question:
Thinking about the war in Iraq, when Democratic Senators criticize the President’s policy on the war in Iraq, do you believe it HELPS the morale of our troops in Iraq or HURTS the morale of our troops in Iraq? (IF HELPS/HURTS, ASK:) And do you believe it (HURTS/HELPS) morale A LOT or just SOME
Blumenthal points out that 17% of respondents replied “not sure”, which he takes as a strong indicator that many others were also unsure but made up responses at the moment. His analysis is very clever, and also likely correct. As he concludes:
So there we have it: A consistent majority of at least 60% of Americans now disapproves of President Bush’s performance on the Iraq war and believes it not worth the cost. A smaller majority now says that the war was a mistake. The consistency of the results suggests these are real attitudes, not opinions formed on the spot in the response to the language of the question.
However, when pollsters ask what we should do next in Iraq, results are highly inconsistent. Support for leaving sooner varies anywhere from 35% to 63% on the questions listed above. Support for staying the course (in one form or another) varies from 36% to 59%. Ask a question with three or more options (as RT Strategies and Gallup did above) and, not surprisingly, at least a third of Americans opts for the middle category. When it comes to prospective policy, Americans - like their leaders - are divided and collectively not quite sure what to do next.
Well worth reading as we are inundated by polls that provide useful information, if only we can figure out what they mean.
Add comment December 13th, 2005