Psyche, Science, and Society

Preventing avian flu: Practical steps the world should take

Laurie Garrett — senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations, is the Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Coming Plague — in a new article in the International Herald Tribune [Unless We Act Now, Bird Flu May Win; also on CommonDreams]; describes some intelligent public health measures that should be taken to help prevent a human avian flu pandemic:

Instead of simply sitting back and watching nature take its course, the global community should be proactive. Being ahead of the virus is akin to being ahead of the migrating birds. Instead of waiting for dead birds, and even dying people, to turn up in new areas, political leaders should heed the warnings from science and act accordingly – as, apparently, Sweden and the Netherlands are doing. The Swedes and Dutch looked at their maps, plotted the movements of infected birds, and last week ordered farmers to bring their flocks indoors, out of harm’s way. In poorer regions of the world, where indoor facilities for animals may be unaffordable, simple nets and fences can radically decrease contact between wild and domestic birds, and mass public education campaigns warning people to avoid contact with sick birds or carcasses may decrease the likelihood of avian-to-human transmission of H5N1.

One of the best untapped resources in this epic battle against influenza is bird-watchers, who are among the most fanatic hobbyists in the world. The major bird-watching organizations and safari clubs ought to work with the World Health Organization and OIE, the World Organization for Animal Health, to set up Web-based notification sites, where birders could report sightings of groups of dead birds, and the movements of key migrating species.

Ornithologists and climate experts should immediately sit down with pandemic planners and virologists, creating lists of known H5N1 carriers and plotting their most likely global movements. As the birds appear in new regions of the world, birders and professional wildlife surveillance personnel should issue alerts, which should be swiftly confirmed and form the basis of government response.

When carrier species are sighted in a region, swift action should be taken to minimize contact between the wild birds and their domestic kin. In such a way, it might be possible to limit avian deaths to susceptible wild birds, such as the dying swans of Europe.

While the H5N1 virus remains an avian killer, wealthy nations and biomedical companies should work hard on developing a rapid, simple method of diagnosing flu infections in people. Currently, many of the delays in reporting human cases around the world are due to the tedious laboratory procedures necessary to diagnose H5N1 infection. We urgently need a quick infection test that can be performed by nonprofessionals.

Rather than waiting for a tide of H5N1 to wash over the world’s birds, mutate, and then move in a tidal wave over humanity, we should create lines of defense that start with the wild animals, move next to protect poultry, and then rely on rapid screening of human beings to determine who is, and is not, infected with the virus.

In the absence of these sound footings, everything else is just wasted billions of dollars.

The basic point is that prevention is far-and-away the best strategy to use against this potential danger. Once a human pandemic breaks out, there is far less that can be done. A policy emphasizing stockpiling Tamiflu is a potentially wasted effort in the developed countries and is one that simply consigns those in the less developed world to wait to die.

February 27th, 2006

Letter to the New York Times: Psychoanalysis and science

Adam Phillips, a British psychoanayst, today has an Op Ed in the New York Times [A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Measure] which argues that psychoanalysis and psychotherapy should keep themselves aloof from the scientific research endeavor. I penned a response that I’ve just sent to the Times:

To the Editor:

Adam Phillips, “A Mind is a Terrible Thing to Measure”, argues that psychoanalysis, and psychotherapy in general, represent a defense of humanistic values against the intrusions of the dominant trends in modern culture. He is correct that psychoanalysis and related therapies are based on values – of contemplation, of dialog, and the importance of the inner emotional life – that fly in the face of many modern trends.

As a psychoanalyst and researcher, I find it disturbing that Phillips has himself fallen victim of the modern dualistic view that separates science and objective knowledge from the world of spirit. He argues that psychotherapy should remain distinct from scientific understanding, “offering only an informed willingness to listen, and the possibility of helpful comment.” Yet, why should not this therapist be informed by the best scientific understanding of human psychological functioning, and why shouldn’t the frequency of helpful comment be evaluated?

The fact that much research on psychotherapy takes that which is currently measurable as the only things worth thinking about doesn’t mean that therapists shouldn’t use all available tools, scientific understanding and humanistic comprehension among them, to aid their patients and to improve their work. Like every other field, psychotherapists undoubtedly believe many things that are false and use many techniques that are ineffective. Scientific research, however imperfect, is the best technique humans have developed to gradually winnow truth from falsehood. Greater understanding will help reduce the number of those “casualties” that Phillips correctly reminds us will sometimes result from our therapeutic efforts. Our patients deserve that we use all available tools, science among them, to understand them and to improve our work.

Stephen Soldz

February 26th, 2006

Child gender and voting patterns

The New York Times Week in Review has a fascinating article [Children, the Littlest Politicians] on gender differences in political allegiances. No, this isn’t the well-known gender gap whereby women lean Democratic and men Republican. Rather, parents of boys tend to vote more conservatively than parents of girls. Most of the research conducted so far has been in Europe. For example:

“In Germany, two-thirds of people who switched their political affiliation in the year after having a son moved to the more conservative party. The ratio was flipped for those who had a daughter.
In Britain, the two left of center parties, Labor and the Liberal Democrats, do much better — 11 percentage points — among voters with three girls and no boys than among voters with three boys and no girls. “

As the Times article points out, these findings avoid the famous researcher warning: correlation doesn’t prove causation, for, as the article states, “there is no way that voting for a Democrat makes someone more likely to bear a daughter.” For political activists these findings raise profound questions about the origins of political attitudes and behaviors that we ignore at our peril.

I am writing a more extened piece on issues raised by this article.

February 20th, 2006

Food service industry warns of avian flu danger, recommends making preparations

A new report [An Analysis of the Potential Impact of the H5N1 Avian Flu Virus - Wholesale and Retail Grocery and Foodservice Industry; pdf] discusses potential impacts of an avian flu pandemic on the food services industry. They are anticipating widespread disruption. Of course, if that industry is disrupted, we will all suffer difficulties in obtaining food. Given what we know about the utter incompetence of the Federal government to deal with crises and meet people’s need, the situation could become grim.

While the likelihood of an H5N1 pandemic is far from certain, it is certainly a nontrivial possibility. Individuals and organizations should begin preparations in order to reduce panic should a pandemic come to pass.

February 18th, 2006

Avian flu around the world

The Guardian has a useful Special Report: Bird flu around the world: a guide

February 16th, 2006

Greenland ice sheet melting as escalated rate

NASA climate scientist Jim Hansen in the Independent on new data showing the Greenland ice sheet is melting far more rapidly than believed possible.

A satellite study of the Greenland ice cap shows that it is melting far faster than scientists had feared – twice as much ice is going into the sea as it was five years ago. The implications for rising sea levels – and climate change – could be dramatic.

Yet, a few weeks ago, when I – a Nasa climate scientist – tried to talk to the media about these issues following a lecture I had given calling for prompt reductions in the emission of greenhouse gases, the Nasa public affairs team – staffed by political appointees from the Bush administration – tried to stop me doing so. I was not happy with that, and I ignored the restrictions. The first line of Nasa’s mission is to understand and protect the planet.

This new satellite data is a remarkable advance. We are seeing for the first time the detailed behaviour of the ice streams that are draining the Greenland ice sheet. They show that Greenland seems to be losing at least 200 cubic kilometres of ice a year. It is different from even two years ago, when people still said the ice sheet was in balance.

Hundreds of cubic kilometres sounds like a lot of ice. But this is just the beginning. Once a sheet starts to disintegrate, it can reach a tipping point beyond which break-up is explosively rapid. The issue is how close we are getting to that tipping point. The summer of 2005 broke all records for melting in Greenland. So we may be on the edge.

Our understanding of what is going on is very new. Today’s forecasts of sea-level rise use climate models of the ice sheets that say they can only disintegrate over a thousand years or more. But we can now see that the models are almost worthless. They treat the ice sheets like a single block of ice that will slowly melt. But what is happening is much more dynamic.

Once the ice starts to melt at the surface, it forms lakes that empty down crevasses to the bottom of the ice. You get rivers of water underneath the ice. And the ice slides towards the ocean.

Our Nasa scientists have measured this in Greenland. And once these ice streams start moving, their influence stretches right to the interior of the ice sheet. Building an ice sheet takes a long time, because it is limited by snowfall. But destroying it can be explosively rapid.

How fast can this go? Right now, I think our best measure is what happened in the past. We know that, for instance, 14,000 years ago sea levels rose by 20m in 400 years – that is five metres in a century. This was towards the end of the last ice age, so there was more ice around. But, on the other hand, temperatures were not warming as fast as today.

How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today – which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don’t act soon. None of the current climate and ice models predict this. But I prefer the evidence from the Earth’s history and my own eyes. I think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even than warming itself.

It’s hard to say what the world will be like if this happens. It would be another planet. You could imagine great armadas of icebergs breaking off Greenland and melting as they float south. And, of course, huge areas being flooded.

How long have we got? We have to stabilise emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things could become unstoppable. If we are to stop that, we cannot wait for new technologies like capturing emissions from burning coal. We have to act with what we have. This decade, that means focusing on energy efficiency and renewable sources of energy that do not burn carbon. We don’t have much time left.

Jim Hansen, the director of the Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York, is President George Bush’s top climate modeller. He was speaking to Fred Pearce

February 16th, 2006

Avian flu worst case scenario: 142 million dead

A new study claims that 142 million people could die from a worst-case Avian Flu pandemic. It could also cause over $4 trillion in economic losses. Perhaps the world should devote the resources needed to averting such a result?

February 15th, 2006

Torture at Abu Ghraib

Thanks to Dahr Jamail, you can view the Australian televsion program documenting the new abu Ghraib torture photos and video by clicking here.

February 15th, 2006

Avian flu dangers increase as virus spreads

The New York Times reports: Pandemic risk rises as bird flu spreads:

As bird flu outbreaks have cropped up in Nigeria, Azerbaijan and Iraq over the past week – countries that are ill-prepared to battle the fast-moving virus – scientists have said that the new pattern of spreading infection makes a worldwide human pandemic more likely….

“These are horrendous developments, whether you’re a human or if you’re a bird,” said John Oxford, professor of virology at Queen Mary’s college at the University of London. “Everyone wondered what would happen if avian influenza came to Africa, but no one really prepared. They waited. Now it’s there – and this is not the most organized continent in the world.”

Making recent developments especially scary is Africa’s high HIV/AIDS rates, as HIV-infected people may form an ideal incubation location for Avian flu to mutate, increasing the odds of developing a strain with human-to-human transmission:

In the initial stages, having a depressed immune system could have a protective effect, said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, because virulent flus set off a powerful immune reaction that can drown the lungs in fluid….

But HIV-infected people who managed to fight off bird flu would become ideal crucibles in which the H5N1 virus could exchange genes with other viruses, dramatically increasing the likelihood of a bird flu strain that could readily infect humans.

“If H5N1 gets into people with AIDS it would likely persist and throw off mutants left, right and center,”

You would think that given the risk, the world would be mobilizing to confront this threat. You would think…

1 comment February 12th, 2006

New evidence on global warming

New evidence of the extent of global warming was published today. [Climate 'warmest for millennium'] Using a detailed reconstruction of the past, scientist demonstrate that the northern hemiphere is the warmest its been since the ninth century:

“As we get more and more evidence in, it is looking as if the current period is the warmest for over 1,000 years.”

In November, Science published a paper showing atmospheric levels of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane are higher now than at any time in the past 650,000 years.

February 9th, 2006