Psyche, Science, and Society

Iran to run out of oil soon?

December 27th, 2006

Reuters reports that a Johns Hopkins researcher has published an analysis which states that Iran may experience a shortfall in oil to export within eight years. Of course, I have no idea if this analysis is correct, but, of course, it does shed new light on Iran’s determination to develop nuclear power:

Iran’s claim to need nuclear power may be genuine, given that it could run out of oil to export as soon as eight years from now, according to an analysis published on Tuesday by the National Academy of Sciences.

The study’s author, Roger Stern, a researcher at Johns Hopkins University in Maryland, said investment in Iranian oil production had been inadequate to offset oil field declines and the explosive growth in domestic demand.

“I’m not saying that Iran will have no oil in eight years,” Stern said in a telephone interview. “I’m saying that they will be using all of it for themselves.”

The analysis, published in the latest issue of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, said the Iranian government could become “politically vulnerable” from declining exports.

Oil exports account for about 70 percent of Iranian government revenue, said Stern, of the university’s department of geography and environmental engineering.

He projected that in five years, Iranian oil exports may be less than half their present level, and could drop to zero by 2015.

“It therefore seems possible that Iran’s claim to need nuclear power might be genuine, an indicator of distress from anticipated export revenue shortfalls,” he wrote. “If so, the Iranian regime may be more vulnerable than is presently understood.”

Entry Filed under: Iran, Middle East