Psyche, Science, and Society

Career military turn against Bush and his war

Military Times magazine reports the results of their annual subscriber poll, conducted by mail:

• Only 35% of respondents approve of Bush’s handling of the war, while 42% disapprove;

• 41% believe the US should have gone to war in the first (compared to 42% of the general population);
• And 50% feel that “success is likely” (whatever that means).

  It is important to note, as Military Times puts it:

  The results are not representative of the military as a whole. The survey’s respondents, 945 this year, are on average older, more experienced, more likely to be officers and more career-oriented than the overall military population.

  Further, 66% have deployed at least once to Iraq or Afghanistan.

  In other words, they tend to represent the career soldiers and officers, those most identified with the military as an institution. If Bush has lost this group, the attitudes of the rest of the military is likely much more critical. In fact, a March 2006 Stars and Stripes poll of those fighting in Iraq found “that 72% of them wanted to be withdrawn within a year, while 29% favored immediate withdrawl.”

  This group is not sure what should be done about the messes in Iraq and Afghanistan:

  Only about one in five service members said large numbers of American troops can be replaced with Iraqi troops within the next two years. More than one-third think it will take more than five years. And more than half think the U.S. will have to stay in Iraq more than five years to achieve its goals.

  Almost half of those responding think the United States needs more troops in Iraq. A surprising 13% said the U.S. should have no troops there.

  As for Afghanistan force levels, 39% think we need more troops there. But while they want more troops in Iraq and Afghanistan, nearly three-quarters of the respondents think the military is stretched too thin to be effective.

  Notice that: 13% of career military believe the US should not be in Iraq at all! Combine them with the three quarters who believe the military is stretched too thin and the conditions look quite ripe for the antiwar movement within the military. No wonder the An Appeal for Redress from the War in Iraq has been signed by Almost 1,000 active duty soldiers. As others in the antiwar movement try to replicate the 1960’s coffeehouses, the conditions may finally be fertile. If so, the antiwar movement may soon be getting a huge boost.

January 2nd, 2007

Avian flu still a threat

After a few months of reduced mortality and news coverage, many people have forgotten about avian flu. The danger seems “so last year,” as they fall back to simplistic defenses about the threat being overblown. But revere at Effect Measure reminds us that 2006 was the worst year so far, with more reported cases and more deaths than any previous year:

Indeed the number of deaths in 2006 exceeded the total of deaths for 2003, 2004 and 2005 combined (79 versus 78), although the number of cases exceeded last year’s by only 18%, compared to an 88% increase in deaths over 2005.

He also reminds us that the quiet in the latter half of 2006 is exactly what is expected:

As in previous years, the second half of the calendar year has seen far fewer cases than the first half. This is the usual pattern. From July, there have been 21 human cases in five countries; from January to June there were 93, an apparent steep drop-off. In 2005 the first 6 months toll of 59 was also followed by a drop-off to 38 cases and in 2004 the numbers were 32 and 14 (data from here with additions of the three Egyptian cases in December). Thus the first half of 2006 was worse than the first half of 2005, but the autumn of 2005 was worse than this year. The general pattern is clear, however. Human cases increase markedly in the first half of the year, and the increase starts now, in January, which has been the peak month in each of the past three years (23, 20 and 25 cases, respectively). We don’t know if this January will be a repeat, but we should be prepared and expecting it.

So, just as we prepare for earthquakes, even though we don’t know if they will strike in our lifetime, so we should prepare for a possible influenza pandemic. It might come, or might not. But if it does…

1 comment January 2nd, 2007

FDA affirmative action for right-wing ideologues

According to revere at Effect Measure, the FDA is replacing a part-time Deputy Commissioner from the American Enterprise Institute with another (Acting) Deputy Commissioner from the American Enterprise Institute, this one someone who’s main recent activity has been protecting the drug pushers from cheap competition from Canada. The FDA seems to have a quota for right wing ideologues.

January 2nd, 2007