Psyche, Science, and Society

Avian flu still a threat

January 2nd, 2007

After a few months of reduced mortality and news coverage, many people have forgotten about avian flu. The danger seems “so last year,” as they fall back to simplistic defenses about the threat being overblown. But revere at Effect Measure reminds us that 2006 was the worst year so far, with more reported cases and more deaths than any previous year:

Indeed the number of deaths in 2006 exceeded the total of deaths for 2003, 2004 and 2005 combined (79 versus 78), although the number of cases exceeded last year’s by only 18%, compared to an 88% increase in deaths over 2005.

He also reminds us that the quiet in the latter half of 2006 is exactly what is expected:

As in previous years, the second half of the calendar year has seen far fewer cases than the first half. This is the usual pattern. From July, there have been 21 human cases in five countries; from January to June there were 93, an apparent steep drop-off. In 2005 the first 6 months toll of 59 was also followed by a drop-off to 38 cases and in 2004 the numbers were 32 and 14 (data from here with additions of the three Egyptian cases in December). Thus the first half of 2006 was worse than the first half of 2005, but the autumn of 2005 was worse than this year. The general pattern is clear, however. Human cases increase markedly in the first half of the year, and the increase starts now, in January, which has been the peak month in each of the past three years (23, 20 and 25 cases, respectively). We don’t know if this January will be a repeat, but we should be prepared and expecting it.

So, just as we prepare for earthquakes, even though we don’t know if they will strike in our lifetime, so we should prepare for a possible influenza pandemic. It might come, or might not. But if it does…

Entry Filed under: Avian flu, Public Health