Psyche, Science, and Society

Lancet motality study author Riyadh Lafta fears for life

April 28th, 2007

LancetIraq mortality study author Riyadh Lafta, recently unable to speak in the United States because he was a visa, and in Canada, because the UK denied a transit visa, now fears for his life back in Baghdad, the Globe and Mail reports:

Doctor fears for life in homeland
Prevented from speaking at SFU, author continues controversial work despite danger

JONATHAN WOODWARD

A scientist known for counting the dead from the U.S.-led war in Iraq spent this week fearing for his own life in Baghdad after being denied a transit visa through Britain to Canada.

Riyadh Lafta, who co-authored a controversial study that estimated the war-related deaths at more than half a million, had planned to tell students at Simon Fraser University about his work and then spend a week in retreat near West Vancouver, writing a paper about an alarming rise in cancers among Iraqi children.

He would have left Canada today. Instead, he taught to all-but-empty classes at al-Mustansiriya University in Baghdad, with students fearful of attacks choosing to not leave their homes.

“This country is a killing machine,” said Dr. Lafta in a phone interview from Baghdad. “And can one escape death? No one can.”

In January, two car bombs ripped through his university, killing 70 and injuring more than 200, mostly students. In February, a female suicide bomber killed more than 40 more. Several days ago, Dr. Lafta received word that one of his colleagues - a pediatric lecturer in Baghdad, although Dr. Lafta would not give his name - had been killed.

“They took money from his family, and yet still they assassinated him,” he said.

“Even a man who is a little bit well known is at extreme risk of being killed,” he said. “Now, when I talk to you, really I am risking my life.”

Dr. Lafta, 47, rarely speaks with the media and would not discuss much of his life in Baghdad: his family, his daily routine, his new research, or his political views. His home was searched by coalition forces several weeks ago.

His science, epidemiology, is the study of health on the scale of a population. It sometimes mixes with politics - often unpleasantly, he said.

The study he co-authored, which was published in the prestigious Lancet medical journal, sent volunteers door-to-door to get estimates for small communities throughout Iraq, and then extrapolated the number of war dead at 654,965 - or about 2.5 per cent of the population.

That was 10 times higher than other independent counts such as the Iraq Body Count, and 20 times higher than the number the Bush administration uses. According to a recent survey, it’s about 66 times higher than the number the average American believes - 9,800.

The study was a bombshell that convinced some public figures to recant their support for the war. But it was also attacked in the American media, and Dr. Lafta believes the Americans who wage the war must know the damage they’re doing.

“It is our duty to concentrate on the things that are alarming and disastrous to our population,” he said. “This is unpopular. I know it is. But the challenge is to find the truth. I am not a politician. I hate politics.”

Dr. Lafta had originally planned to speak at the University of Washington, but could not get a visa to the United States. Canada offered a visa, but as he was en route to Jordan, a pass to spend four hours in Heathrow airport in London was denied on the basis of his citizenship.

That’s despite a week-long stay in the U.K. two years ago, when he delivered teeth specimens to Randy Parrish at the University of Leicester, said Dr. Parrish in an e-mail interview.

“I cannot really understand this denial of a visa, since he obtained one a couple of years ago evidently without incident,” said Dr. Parrish, who met Dr. Lafta in June, 2005.

The British Embassy in Canada refrained from commenting on the inconsistency. But Dr. Lafta’s colleague in the child-cancer study, SFU professor Tim Takaro, said, “There’s no reason anything should have changed between those two visits. The only thing that changed was the Lancet study.”

While that study is unpopular in the U.S., doing that kind of research can be deadly in Iraq, said Les Roberts, a co-author of the study from Johns Hopkins University.

“When was the last time there was a vicious war that went on for four years and 2.5 per cent of the people didn’t die?” he said.

“I’m worried sick about him being one of them, and the irony is he could be killed by pro-government people and anti-government people with almost equal probability.”

His colleagues are trying to get Dr. Lafta’s data, which suggest an increase in birth defects and a tenfold rise in childhood cancers that could be due to the war. They are trying to find a direct flight for Dr. Lafta to Canada, or a connection through a country that will grant a visa.

Until then, Dr. Lafta says he will continue his research. The war has to some extent heightened his senses, he says.

“You use it to concentrate more, and you start to struggle for something,” he said. “Maybe your adrenaline is going. You have an objective, and the difficult conditions make a special kind of person. It makes you more courageous.”

While many professionals have left the country, Dr. Lafta’s work - and his patriotism - keep him in Iraq.

“I can’t leave my home just because I am scared of being killed,” he said. “I think have lived enough.”

[h/t to MediaLens Message Board.]

Entry Filed under: Iraq, Mortality, Public Health, War and Peace