Posts filed under 'Avian flu'
Effect Measure comments on problems at CDC, with senior staff leaving out of frustration that they can’t get anything done. Particularly hard hit, it is reported, are the AIDS and influenza groups. With a potential avian flu pandemic looming, this is the last thing the nation can afford.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution [Discord leaves CDC vulnerable, employees say] is quoted as saying that the lapdog Senate is “investigating”:
The U.S. Senate Finance Committee is investigating whether turmoil within the Atlanta-based CDC caused by a massive reorganization is “resulting in the loss of distinguished medical experts whose participation will be greatly needed in the event of future catastrophic health emergencies,” committee spokeswoman Jill Kozeny said Tuesday night.
As is typical, the massive reorganization is apparently being done with little input from those being reorganized. The latter are naturally disgruntled. Of course, CDC management says everything is fine. Why don’t we feel fine?
Meanwhile, the CDC is simultaneously being investigated for ignoring scientific advice in the creation of performance standards for state bioterrorism preparedness:
Grassley’s committee is investigating whether efforts to create meaningful performance standards have been thrwarted [sic] by CDC management. Employees have told the committee that measurement tools written by scientific experts are “consistently rejected or rewritten” by managers lacking scientific or technical expertise, according to a letter sent on March 2 by Grassley to Michael Leavitt, secretary of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, which oversees the CDC.
Unfortunately the AJC article doesn’t give examples of how the performance standards are being modified by management
May 26th, 2006
The World health Organization is reporting that human-to-human transmission is likely in the Indonesian cluster of eight infected family members. [See Effect Measure: WHO update on Indonesia cluster: not comforting]
All confirmed cases in the cluster can be directly linked to close and prolonged exposure to a patient during a phase of severe illness. Although human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out, the search for a possible alternative source of exposure is continuing.
While no cause for alarm now, this is disturbing news. It suggests the virus is mutating to be more compatible with humans.
May 23rd, 2006
From Andy Borowitz:
AVIAN FLU NOW MORE POPULAR THAN BUSH
Bird Pandemic Surges Ahead of President in Latest Poll
In a seemingly ominous development for the White House, a new survey released today indicates that the avian flu is now more popular than President George W. Bush.
The poll, which was taken by the University of Minnesota’s Opinion Research Institute, puts the President’s approval rating at 34 percent, well behind the avian flu at 46 percent.
While the President’s numbers have been trending downward for the last several weeks, the White House was reportedly stunned to learn that the President is now significantly less popular than a deadly bird-borne pandemic.
“There’s no way for the White House to spin these numbers,” said the University of Minnesota’s Davis Logsdon, who supervised the survey. “When a pandemic that threatens the world’s bird population is more popular than you are, you’re in serious political trouble.”
According to Mr. Logsdon, the avian flu gets higher marks for honesty than President Bush does: “The bird pandemic at least comes out and says it is a bird pandemic, and voters find that refreshing.”
Mr. Logsdon said that the one way for the President to increase his popularity vis-à-vis the avian flu would be to eradicate the avian flu, possibly by having Vice President Dick Cheney take out his shotgun and shoot at the world’s birds.
But even this strategy carries with it certain risks: “Thousands of people could wind up getting shot in the face.”
Elsewhere, the Penguin Group paid a reported $8.5 million for former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan’s memoirs, hoping to appeal to the millions of Americans who currently use Ambien.
May 4th, 2006
In a new survey of physicians, a majority believe that avian flu will develop human-to-human transmission within four years. Only 14% think its likely to occur within one year. [ee More than Half of U.S. Physicians Believe Bird Flu will Achieve Human Transmission within Four Years]. It would help to know how knowledgeable these physicians are on the topic, and on infectious disease generally.
May 2nd, 2006
The first line of defense in the event of an avian flu pandemic is our public health system, or what remains of it after years of being bled through a thousand cuts. Now a new study of public health workers finds that many, especially clerical personnel, say they are likely to stay home during a pandemic. [Local public health workers' perceptions toward responding to an influenza pandemic ] After all, they feel their work will not be important in controlling the pandemic, so why risk their health?
Abstract:
Background
Current national preparedness plans require local health departments to play an integral role in responding to an influenza pandemic, a major public health threat that the World Health Organization has described as “inevitable and possibly imminent”. To understand local public health workers’ perceptions toward pandemic influenza response, we surveyed 308 employees at three health departments in Maryland from March - July 2005, on factors that may influence their ability and willingness to report to duty in such an event.
Results
The data suggest that nearly half of the local health department workers are likely not to report to duty during a pandemic. The stated likelihood of reporting to duty was significantly greater for clinical (Multivariate OR: 2.5; CI 1.3-4.7) than technical and support staff, and perception of the importance of one’s role in the agency’s overall response was the single most influential factor associated with willingness to report (Multivariate OR: 9.5; CI 4.6-19.9).
Conclusions
The perceived risk among public health workers was shown to be associated with several factors peripheral to the actual hazard of this event. These risk perception modifiers and the knowledge gaps identified serve as barriers to pandemic influenza response and must be specifically addressed to enable effective local public health response to this significant threat.
[ Full article (pdf)]
If not addressed, the absence of these workers could help cripple this vital system. Not valuing all workers regardless of professional status and involving them directly in their work may have dire consequences in this instance.
UPDATE:
See comments on this story by Revere at Effect Size:
One of the most important jobs of civic leaders is to mobilize the community to prepare for this kind of problem. There will be no shortage of willing volunteers once people understand the stakes and understand that together we will get through a pandemic much better than if we hide from each other, hunkered down in our houses, trying to avoid a virus that may be difficult or impossible to avoid. Most people won’t get sick, and most people who do get sick will recover. This is not doomsday. But the disruption in society can have its own painful, sometimes lethal, effects if we don’t get ready for it. And there’s no reason not to get ready. What it takes to prepare has lasting benefits beyond a flu outbreak.
Will there be those who are too fearful for themselves or their families to help out? Certainly. They will need our help, too, whether they help us or not. But the overwhelming majority of people will do what they can — if we make it possible for them and we promote the idea it is for our common good. I don’t worry that health care or public health or police or fire will abandon their posts if we are prepared.
The idea we are all in this together is an ideological notion, of course. It opposes the equally ideological one that says it’s every person for themselves. There are good reasons to believe we are better off as a society if we work cooperatively, but no one can guarantee for any individual person they are better off. If you hold as a moral position that a person’s only concern should be to look after him or herself, then you should also be prepared to forfeit the help of others when you need it.
April 18th, 2006
Revere, at Effect Measure raises a warning about lack of protection for First responders who take relatively untested avian flu vaccines or medicines. [Firefighters and bird flu] At present, there are no provisions for their negative reactions to be treated as work related disabilities. We could end up in a situation where First Responders refuse top respond, due to their refusal to be unprotected guinea pigs for the vaccine industry. Any of us could pay with our lives for Senator Frist’s vaccine and drug industry liability immunity provisions, with provisions specially designed for avian flu.
April 16th, 2006
Many of us remember the federal government’s reassurances after September 11th that the air in New York City was safe to breath. We have known since 2003 that these claims were false. [See: Residents angry, but not surprised at premature E.P.A. 9/11 air reports or EPA Misled Public on 9/11 Pollution ] Now comes news from the BBC [Problems mount from 9/11 fallout ] that many have paid for this deception with their health, or even their lives:
“The number of people with medical problems linked to the 9/11 attacks on New York has risen to at least 15,000.
The figure, put together for the BBC, counts those receiving treatment for problems related to breathing in dust….
One list of sufferers has been compiled at the Mount Sinai Medical Center. Its World Trade Center Screening Programme has 16,000 people on its books, of whom about half - 8,000 - require treatment.
A further 7,000 firefighters are recorded as having a wide range of medical problems, producing a total of 15,000. But the overall numbers affected could easily be far higher.
As the US government’s newly appointed “health czar” John Howard confirmed to the BBC, there were between 30,000 and 50,000 people at or near Ground Zero who might have been exposed to the hazardous dust and no one really knows how many are suffering problems now.”
Another cost to us all is that such deception lower trust in statements from official sources about health risks and the steps being taken to address them. Should an avian flu pandemic occur, this increased distrust will threaten us all. We will not be able to trust official pronouncements about risks, or rather, the absence of risks. Despite having some of the best public health professionals in the world, the politization of virtually everything this government does means the federal government is no longer a reliable source of information. We all may suffer from the consequences.
Where will people turn? My belief is that the only remedy is for the public health community to form an committee of independent experts who could evaluate evidence and make statements to the public. Of course, to be credible, such statements would have to acknowledge what is unknown and what is uncertain. In the absence of such an authoritative source, the rumor mill will swirl beyond anything we have seen so far. Mass panic is a potential result.
April 12th, 2006
In its infinite wisdom, Congress passed a requirement that would deny healthcare to millions:
“[T]he new federal requirement compels anyone seeking Medicaid coverage to provide a birth certificate, a passport, or another form of identification in order to sign up for benefits or renew them.”
As pointed out by SusanG on Daily Kos, this will mean millions of possibly sick and untreated people in our communities. In addition to being immoral, this provision is potentially suicidal for all of us. Bigotry and hatred kills.
April 11th, 2006
Stayin’ Alive [Opportunity Cost] has assessed how much money being “wasted” pandering to fears of avian flu. The answer: None. In fact, spending on public health preparedness is being cut.
“So, what happened when pandemic flu was added to the scope of these programs? The funds were cut, rather drastically. The HRSA program peaked in FY 2004, and funding declined slightly in FY 2005. I only have the figures for Massachusetts — $10,686,180 in FY 2004, $10,256,868 in FY 2005 — but you can find out about your own state’s funding if you like at the HRSA web site. The CDC program really got wacked — Massachusetts’ funding in CDC budget year 8/31/03-8/31/04 was $21,141,965. Since then, it’s been less than $18 million.”
As the post concludes, speaking for me as well:
“So, those of you out there who are worried about how the fear mongers have stolen billions for more important public health priorities can relax — although that’s not what I’m doing.”
April 4th, 2006
At one point, not so very long ago, it may have been possible to prevent avian flu. But no longer. With the worldwide spread, the virus can no longer be contained, says the Los Angeles Times. The virus will, or won’t, mutate to allow human to human transmission. We will have little say about that.
he speed of its migration, and the vast area it has infected, has forced scientists to concede there is little that can be done to stop its spread across the globe.
“We expected it to move, but not any of us thought it would move quite like this,” said Dr. David Nabarro, the United Nations’ coordinator on bird flu efforts.
The hope was once that culling millions of chickens and ducks would contain or even eradicate the virus. Now, the strategy has shifted toward managing a disease that will probably be everywhere. Officials are hoping to buy a little more time to produce human vaccines and limit the potential economic damage.
“We cannot contain this thing anymore. Nature is in control,” said Robert G. Webster, a virologist at St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn., who has been studying the virus since it emerged in 1997.
All the world can do is slow the process a bit, and prepare in case the worst, or something near the worst, happens. Their perspective is that of many other experts. Preparation for a possible pandemic is where the attention should go at this point. Ignoring the warnings in 2003 and 2004 means its now too late for prevention. Lets move on to the next stage of response.
March 29th, 2006
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