Iraq is disintegrating. The first results from the parliamentary
election last week show the country is dividing between Shia, Sunni and
Kurdish regions.
Religious fundamentalists now have the upper hand. The secular and
nationalist candidate backed by the US and Britain was humiliatingly
defeated.
The Shia religious coalition has won a total victory in Baghdad and
the south of Iraq. The Sunni Arab parties who openly or covertly
support armed resistance to the US are likely to win large majorities
in Sunni provinces. The Kurds have already achieved quasi-independence
and their voting reflected that.
The election marks the final shipwreck of American and British hopes
of establishing a pro-Western secular democracy in a united Iraq.
Islamic fundamentalist movements are ever more powerful in both the
Sunni and Shia communities. Ghassan Attiyah, an Iraqi commentator,
said: "In two and a half years Bush has succeeded in creating two new
Talibans in Iraq."
The success of the United Iraqi Alliance, the coalition of Shia
religious parties, has been far greater than expected according to
preliminary results. It won 58 per cent of the vote in Baghdad, while
Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister strongly supported by Tony
Blair, got only 14 per cent of the vote. In Basra, Iraq's second city,
77 per cent of voters supported the Alliance and only 11 per cent Mr
Allawi.
The election was portrayed by President George Bush as a sign of
success for US policies in Iraq but, in fact, means the triumph of
America's enemies inside and outside the country.
Iran will be pleased that the Shia religious parties which it has
supported, have become the strongest political force.
Ironically, Mr Bush is increasingly dependent within Iraq on the
co-operation and restraint of the Iranian President, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, who has repeatedly called for the eradication of Israel.
It is the allies of the Iranian theocracy who are growing in influence
by the day and have triumphed in the election. The US will fear that
development greatly as it constantly reminds the world of Iran's
nuclear ambitions.
Iran may be happier with a weakened Iraq in which it is a
predominant influence rather than see the country entirely break up.
Another victor in the election is the fiery nationalist cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mehdi Army militia fought fierce battles with US
troops last year. The US military said at the time it intended "to kill
or capture him".
Mr Bush cited the recapture of the holy city of Najaf from the Mehdi
Army in August 2004 as an important success for the US Army. Mr Sadr
will now be one of the most influential leaders within the coalition.
All the parties which did well in the election have strength only
within their own community. The Shia coalition succeeded because the
Shia make up 60 per cent of Iraqis but won almost no votes among the
Kurds or Sunni, each of whom is about 20 per cent of the population.
The Sunni and the Kurdish parties won no support outside their own
communities.
The US ambassador in Baghdad, Zilmay Khalilzad, sounded almost
despairing yesterday as he reviewed the results of the election. "It
looks as if people have preferred to vote for their ethnic or sectarian
identities," he said. "But for Iraq to succeed there has to be
cross-ethnic and cross-sectarian co-operation."
The election also means a decisive switch from a secular Iraq to a
country in which, outside Kurdistan, religious law will be paramount.
Mr Allawi, who ran a well-financed campaign, was the main secular hope
but that did not translate into votes. The other main non-religious
candidate, Ahmed Chalabi, won less than 1 per cent of the vote in
Baghdad and will be lucky to win a single seat in the new 275-member
Council of Representatives.
"People underestimate how religious Iraq has become," said one Iraqi
observer. "Iran is really a secular society with a religious
leadership, but Iraq will be a religious society with a religious
leadership." Already most girls leaving schools in Baghdad wear
headscarves. Women's rights in cases of divorce and inheritance are
being eroded.
Sunni Arab leaders were aghast at the electoral triumph of the Shia,
claiming fraud. Adnan al-Dulaimi, the head of the Sunni Arab alliance,
the Iraqi Accordance Front, said that if the electoral commission did
not respond to their complaints they would "demand the elections be
held again in Baghdad".
Mr Allawi's Iraqi National List also protested. Ibrahim al-Janabi, a
party official, said: "The elections commission is not independent. It
is influenced by political parties and by the government." But while
there was probably some fraud and intimidation, the results of the
election mirror the way in which the Shia majority in Iraq is
systematically taking over the levers of power. Shia already control
the ministry of the interior with 110,000 police and paramilitary units
and most of the troops in the 80,000-strong army being trained by the
US are Shia.
Mr Khalilzad said yesterday: "You can't have someone who is regarded
as sectarian, for example, as Minister of the Interior." This is a not
so-veiled criticism of the present minister, Bayan Jabr, a leading
member of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the
largest Shia party. He is accused of running death squads and torture
centres whose victims are Sunni Arabs.
It is unlikely that the Shia religious parties and militias will
tolerate any rollback in their power. "They feel their day has come,"
said Mr Attiyah.
For six months the Shia have ruled Iraq in alliance with the Kurds.
Kurdish leaders are not happy with the way this government has worked.
The Kurds, supported by the US, will now try to dilute Shia control of
government by bringing in Sunni ministers and Mr Allawi. But one
Kurdish leader said: "We have a strategic alliance with the Shia
religious parties we would be unwise to break."
The elections are also unlikely to see a diminution in armed
resistance to the US by the Sunni community. Insurgent groups have made
clear that they see winning seats in parliament as the opening of
another front.
The break-up of Iraq has been brought closer by the election. The
great majority of people who went to the polls voted as Shia, Sunni or
Kurds - and not as Iraqis. The forces pulling Iraq apart are stronger
than those holding it together. The election, billed by Mr Bush and Mr
Blair as the birth of a new Iraqi state may in fact prove to be its
funeral.
Iraq is disintegrating. The first results from the parliamentary
election last week show the country is dividing between Shia, Sunni and
Kurdish regions.
Religious fundamentalists now have the upper hand. The secular and
nationalist candidate backed by the US and Britain was humiliatingly
defeated.
The Shia religious coalition has won a total victory in Baghdad and
the south of Iraq. The Sunni Arab parties who openly or covertly
support armed resistance to the US are likely to win large majorities
in Sunni provinces. The Kurds have already achieved quasi-independence
and their voting reflected that.
The election marks the final shipwreck of American and British hopes
of establishing a pro-Western secular democracy in a united Iraq.
Islamic fundamentalist movements are ever more powerful in both the
Sunni and Shia communities. Ghassan Attiyah, an Iraqi commentator,
said: "In two and a half years Bush has succeeded in creating two new
Talibans in Iraq."
The success of the United Iraqi Alliance, the coalition of Shia
religious parties, has been far greater than expected according to
preliminary results. It won 58 per cent of the vote in Baghdad, while
Iyad Allawi, the former prime minister strongly supported by Tony
Blair, got only 14 per cent of the vote. In Basra, Iraq's second city,
77 per cent of voters supported the Alliance and only 11 per cent Mr
Allawi.
The election was portrayed by President George Bush as a sign of
success for US policies in Iraq but, in fact, means the triumph of
America's enemies inside and outside the country.
Iran will be pleased that the Shia religious parties which it has
supported, have become the strongest political force.
Ironically, Mr Bush is increasingly dependent within Iraq on the
co-operation and restraint of the Iranian President, Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, who has repeatedly called for the eradication of Israel.
It is the allies of the Iranian theocracy who are growing in influence
by the day and have triumphed in the election. The US will fear that
development greatly as it constantly reminds the world of Iran's
nuclear ambitions.
Iran may be happier with a weakened Iraq in which it is a
predominant influence rather than see the country entirely break up.
Another victor in the election is the fiery nationalist cleric
Muqtada al-Sadr, whose Mehdi Army militia fought fierce battles with US
troops last year. The US military said at the time it intended "to kill
or capture him".
Mr Bush cited the recapture of the holy city of Najaf from the Mehdi
Army in August 2004 as an important success for the US Army. Mr Sadr
will now be one of the most influential leaders within the coalition.
All the parties which did well in the election have strength only
within their own community. The Shia coalition succeeded because the
Shia make up 60 per cent of Iraqis but won almost no votes among the
Kurds or Sunni, each of whom is about 20 per cent of the population.
The Sunni and the Kurdish parties won no support outside their own
communities.
The US ambassador in Baghdad, Zilmay Khalilzad, sounded almost
despairing yesterday as he reviewed the results of the election. "It
looks as if people have preferred to vote for their ethnic or sectarian
identities," he said. "But for Iraq to succeed there has to be
cross-ethnic and cross-sectarian co-operation."
The election also means a decisive switch from a secular Iraq to a
country in which, outside Kurdistan, religious law will be paramount.
Mr Allawi, who ran a well-financed campaign, was the main secular hope
but that did not translate into votes. The other main non-religious
candidate, Ahmed Chalabi, won less than 1 per cent of the vote in
Baghdad and will be lucky to win a single seat in the new 275-member
Council of Representatives.
"People underestimate how religious Iraq has become," said one Iraqi
observer. "Iran is really a secular society with a religious
leadership, but Iraq will be a religious society with a religious
leadership." Already most girls leaving schools in Baghdad wear
headscarves. Women's rights in cases of divorce and inheritance are
being eroded.
Sunni Arab leaders were aghast at the electoral triumph of the Shia,
claiming fraud. Adnan al-Dulaimi, the head of the Sunni Arab alliance,
the Iraqi Accordance Front, said that if the electoral commission did
not respond to their complaints they would "demand the elections be
held again in Baghdad".
Mr Allawi's Iraqi National List also protested. Ibrahim al-Janabi, a
party official, said: "The elections commission is not independent. It
is influenced by political parties and by the government." But while
there was probably some fraud and intimidation, the results of the
election mirror the way in which the Shia majority in Iraq is
systematically taking over the levers of power. Shia already control
the ministry of the interior with 110,000 police and paramilitary units
and most of the troops in the 80,000-strong army being trained by the
US are Shia.
Mr Khalilzad said yesterday: "You can't have someone who is regarded
as sectarian, for example, as Minister of the Interior." This is a not
so-veiled criticism of the present minister, Bayan Jabr, a leading
member of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq, the
largest Shia party. He is accused of running death squads and torture
centres whose victims are Sunni Arabs.
It is unlikely that the Shia religious parties and militias will
tolerate any rollback in their power. "They feel their day has come,"
said Mr Attiyah.
For six months the Shia have ruled Iraq in alliance with the Kurds.
Kurdish leaders are not happy with the way this government has worked.
The Kurds, supported by the US, will now try to dilute Shia control of
government by bringing in Sunni ministers and Mr Allawi. But one
Kurdish leader said: "We have a strategic alliance with the Shia
religious parties we would be unwise to break."
The elections are also unlikely to see a diminution in armed
resistance to the US by the Sunni community. Insurgent groups have made
clear that they see winning seats in parliament as the opening of
another front.
The break-up of Iraq has been brought closer by the election. The
great majority of people who went to the polls voted as Shia, Sunni or
Kurds - and not as Iraqis. The forces pulling Iraq apart are stronger
than those holding it together. The election, billed by Mr Bush and Mr
Blair as the birth of a new Iraqi state may in fact prove to be its
funeral.